Definition
Takeoff is a phase of rapid, self-reinforcing acceleration in technological development or growth.
Why It Matters
It is the transition phase that catapults a system into abundance or superintelligence.
Core Concepts
- Recurrent Collapse: A neverending cycle of prosperity followed by ruin (the ancient view). Thiel argues this is unlikely because knowledge is too widespread to be totally lost, though weaponry makes annihilation more probable than mere darkness.
- Plateau: The world converges toward a state of horizontal development similar to today’s rich countries. Thiel argues this is unstable because intense competition for scarce resources without new technology leads to conflict and collapse.
- Extinction: A social or physical disaster so devastating that the species does not survive.
- Takeoff (The Singularity): An accelerating breakthrough toward a much better and fundamentally different future. It requires new technologies so powerful they transcend current understanding.