Horizontal Progress

Definition

Horizontal Progress ( $1 \to n$ ) is the replication, globalization, and scaling of existing technologies or ideas (copying things that work).

It drives widespread abundance and access to technology, but leads to stagnation if not balanced with vertical progress.

Vertical Progress (0 to 1): Doing something that has never been done before. It requires intensive innovation, deep secrets, and creative breakthroughs. Macro-level term: Technology.
How to read: “Zero to one.”
Horizontal Progress (1 to n): Copying things that work and scaling them elsewhere. Macro-level term: Globalization.
How to read: “One to n.”
Meaning: Replication and distribution of an existing solution across more people or places.
Macro Historical Periods:
1815–1914: Both rapid technological development and rapid globalization.
1914–1971: Rapid technological development but limited globalization.
1971–Present: Rapid globalization along with limited technological development (mostly confined to IT).
The Future of Progress: Thiel argues that without new technology ( $0 \to 1$ ), horizontal globalization ( $1 \to n$ ) of existing industrial models will inevitably lead to ecological and resource exhaustion (stagnation), making continuous technological innovation a necessity for survival.
How to read: “Zero to one; one to n.”
Meaning: Without $0 \to 1$ technology, $1 \to n$ globalization exhausts resources; vertical progress is the escape valve.