Definition
Stagnation is a long-term state of little or no growth or progress in technological or civilizational development.
Why It Matters
It represents a trap where resource depletion without advancement leads to eventual collapse.
Core Concepts
- Recurrent Collapse: A neverending cycle of prosperity followed by ruin (the ancient view). Thiel argues this is unlikely because knowledge is too widespread to be totally lost, though weaponry makes annihilation more probable than mere darkness.
- Plateau: The world converges toward a state of horizontal development similar to today’s rich countries. Thiel argues this is unstable because intense competition for scarce resources without new technology leads to conflict and collapse.
- Extinction: A social or physical disaster so devastating that the species does not survive.