Definition
Takeoff Scenarios describe the possible speeds at which an Intelligence Explosion occurs, typically classified by the temporal interval between the attainment of human-level intelligence and radical superintelligence.
Why It Matters
The ‘speed’ of AI takeoff (slow, fast, or hard) determines whether humanity has years or seconds to solve the alignment problem. Understanding these scenarios is critical for policy-making, as each requires a fundamentally different defensive and regulatory posture.
Core Concepts
- Fast Takeoff (Minutes to Days):
- Scant opportunity for human deliberation or response.
- Fate depends on preparations made before the onset.
- High probability of a single entity (a “singleton”) gaining global dominance.
- Moderate Takeoff (Months to Years):
- Allows for some human response but not enough for new large-scale systems (like treaties or security protocols) to be developed.
- Potential for geopolitical turbulence as groups jockey for advantage.
- Slow Takeoff (Decades to Centuries):
- Similar to the Agricultural or Industrial Revolutions.
- Offers opportunities for social, legal, and political adaptation.
- Preparations made before the takeoff are likely to become obsolete as the era dawns.
- Takeoff Drivers: Speed is determined by the ratio of Optimization Power to Recalcitrance. Low recalcitrance or high optimization power leads to faster takeoffs.