Definition
A predictive model that charts the likely evolutionary path of a specific technology or technological domain over time.
Why It Matters
Progress is not random; it is path-dependent. Mapping trajectories allows leaders to ‘skate to where the puck is going to be,’ identifying the physical and economic bottlenecks that will dictate the next decade of innovation.
Core Concepts
- S-Curves: The typical lifecycle of a technology (slow start, rapid growth, plateau).
- Adjacent Possible: The set of all first-order combinations of existing technologies.
- Bottleneck Analysis: Identifying the limiting factors that constraint progress.