Definition
Technological Stagnation is a prolonged period (centuries or millennia) of near-zero growth in total factor productivity and technological advancement. While not an existential catastrophe itself, it creates a “Stagnation Trap” that increases the cumulative risk of extinction or collapse.
Why It Matters
Stagnation is not a stable state; it is a slow-motion fall. Without progress, we cannot solve the problems we’ve already created (like climate change or debt). A stagnant world eventually becomes zero-sum, leading to the collapse of liberal values and social peace.
Core Concepts
- The “Picking Low-Hanging Fruit” Problem: As we advance, further progress becomes exponentially harder. Doubling our level of technology requires quadrupling the research effort (“Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?”).
- Demographic Decline: Innovation is driven by population size (more minds = more ideas). With global fertility rates below replacement, a shrinking population may fail to produce the necessary research effort to sustain progress (the “Switzerland Problem”).
- The Stagnation Trap: A stagnant world remains stuck at an “Unsustainable Level of Technology”—one that creates risks (e.g., bioweapons, fossil fuel reliance) without providing the means to defend against them.
- Civilisational Interregnum: A period where progress halts, potentially leading to the loss of democratic and progressive values as the economy becomes “zero-sum.”