Definition
Step Risk is the discrete, immediate risk associated with transitioning from one state to another (e.g., launching a rocket).
Why It Matters
It is a single, high-stakes binary event that can destroy the system if it fails.
Core Concepts
- Anthropogenic State Risks: Living in an internationally anarchic system with nuclear weapons. The longer we wait, the greater the cumulative chance of an Armageddon.
- Natural State Risks: Asteroids, supervolcanoes, gamma-ray bursts.
- AI as a Step Risk: The creation of superintelligence is a discrete event. The magnitude of the risk depends on preparations made before the step, but may not depend on how long the step itself takes (conditional on a fast takeoff).
- Differential Acceleration: If we face high state risks (e.g., imminent nuclear war), we should accelerate macro-structural development to reach a safer post-transition state sooner.