Definition
State Risk is the continuous risk associated with being in a particular state or environment over time (e.g., the risk of running out of money).
Why It Matters
It compounds over duration, making execution speed and time-in-state critical factors.
Core Concepts
- Anthropogenic State Risks: Living in an internationally anarchic system with nuclear weapons. The longer we wait, the greater the cumulative chance of an Armageddon.
- Natural State Risks: Asteroids, supervolcanoes, gamma-ray bursts.
- Preparation Time: If we face low state risks, we should decelerate to allow more time for progress on solving the “step risk” (e.g., solving the control problem).