Definition
The Simulation Usage Spectrum defines the role of a simulation based on the degree of uncertainty and the primary intent of the user. It ranges from Problem Solving with trusted models to Gathering Insight with exploratory models.
Why It Matters
The usage spectrum prevents the ‘misuse’ of models; it ensures that we don’t treat an exploratory, high-uncertainty simulation as a definitive problem-solving tool, protecting decision-makers from false confidence.
Core Concepts
- Problem Solving:
- Context: The model is a “trusted tool” assumed to be a valid representation of the Simuland.
- Uncertainty: Low to no Epistemic Uncertainty.
- Goal: Answer “What if?” and predict outcomes for decision support.
- Gathering Insight:
- Context: The model is seen as incomplete, possibly incorrect, or a work-in-progress.
- Uncertainty: High epistemic uncertainty about the phenomenon or the model’s structure.
- Goal: Learn how to simulate the phenomenon or improve the model itself.
- Lifecycle Loops: Simulations often alternate between these roles. A failed “Problem Solving” run (invalid results) triggers a shift back to “Insight Gathering” to refine the model.