Definition
A Multipolar Trap occurs when multiple competing actors (nations, companies, AI labs) are incentivized to take actions that are individually rational but collectively catastrophic, because whoever acts first gains a decisive advantage.
Why It Matters
The multipolar trap is why we have arms races and over-exploitation of the commons. Even if every actor is ‘good,’ the incentives force them toward a collectively disastrous outcome. Solving this trap is the central challenge of global governance and species-level survival.
Core Concepts
- Race Dynamics: Fear that others will deploy advanced AI first forces rushed development.
- Defection Pressure: Safety measures become a competitive disadvantage.
- Tragedy of the Commons applied to intelligence.