Definition
Bayesian credence is a degree of belief assigned to a proposition under uncertainty. It treats knowledge as graded confidence rather than binary certainty.
Why It Matters
It replaces dogmatic certainty with a flexible, graded confidence that can grow or shrink with new evidence. This approach makes us more resilient to errors and more open to the truth by treating knowledge as a work-in-progress.
Core Concepts
- Beliefs can be represented as probabilities.
- Prior credences are unavoidable; everyone starts with background assumptions.
- Rationality requires coherence among credences.
- Evidence matters by changing credences, not by producing absolute proof.