Definition
The Rising Sun is a mental model for distinguishing between institutional ascent (growth/success) and institutional decay (failure/collapse) when observing a complex, fluctuating system. Based on Benjamin Franklin’s observation of a sun carved into Washington’s chair, it emphasizes the importance of narrative clarity after a long period of “hopes and fears.”
Why It Matters
In the ‘fog of war’ of any great endeavor, it’s hard to tell if you’re succeeding or failing. This model encourages leaders to maintain an ‘optimistic vector,’ choosing the narrative of ascent to build the collective belief necessary for final victory.
Core Concepts
- The Chair Back Observation: “Painters have found it difficult to distinguish in their art a rising from a setting sun.” Institutional health often looks identical to institutional sickness in a single “snapshot.”
- Vicissitudes of Hope and Fear: Acknowledging that the trajectory of a great work (like a revolution or a startup) is rarely linear and often “clouded” by setbacks.
- The Decisive Signal: The moment when the “vicissitudes” end and the pattern becomes clear. “Now at length I have the happiness to know that it is a rising and not a setting sun.”
- Optimistic Determination: Choosing the “rising sun” narrative as a self-fulfilling prophecy for the team.