Definition
Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc (Latin for “after this, therefore because of this”) is a logical fallacy that assumes a causal relationship between two events simply because one preceded the other in time.
Why It Matters
This is the most common bug in human logic. Just because you “got better” after taking a pill doesn’t mean the pill “worked.” If we don’t protect ourselves against this fallacy, we spend billions on “Tooth Fairy Science” and quackery. It is the primary “Information Hazard” for anyone trying to navigate a complex, noisy world.
Core Concepts
- Temporal Confusion: Mistaking a chronological sequence for a causal mechanism.
- Alternative Medicine Anchor: This is the primary fallacy used to defend unproven treatments (e.g., “I took the herb, then I got better, therefore the herb cured me”).
- Coincidence Ignorance: Failing to account for the possibility of natural recovery, regression to the mean, or independent events occurring simultaneously.