Definition
Moral Uncertainty is the state of being unsure about which moral theory (e.g., Utilitarianism, Kantianism, Virtue Ethics) is correct. It is the ethical equivalent of “epistemic uncertainty” in science, requiring decision-making processes to account for uncertainty about values in addition to facts.
Why It Matters
Admitting that we don’t have all the ethical answers is the beginning of wisdom. If we act with 100% certainty on a flawed moral theory, we risk committing enormous harm (e.g., historical genocides). Ignoring moral uncertainty leads to “moral fanaticism” where one value is maximized at the cost of all others. Hedging across moral theories produces more robust and defensible outcomes.
Core Concepts
- Maximizing Expected Moral Value (MEMV): A decision-making rule where one weighs the “moral value” of an action according to each theory, multiplied by the probability that the theory is true (maximizing expected choice-worthiness).
- The “Parliamentary” Model: A mental model where each ethical theory is represented as a member of a “parliament” in your head, negotiating a compromise that respects the intensity and confidence of each theory’s vote.
- Avoiding Moral Catastrophe: A strategy of avoiding actions that are considered horrific or a “moral catastrophe” by at least one plausible ethical theory, even if your favorite theory recommends them.
- Intertheoretic Comparisons: The difficulty of comparing “units” of value between different ethical theories (e.g., duty vs. utility).
- Solving the Population Paradox: Using moral uncertainty to find a compromise between the Total View and the Average View, leading to a “Critical Level” approach.