Definition
Future AI Scenarios refer to structured explorations of possible future states involving advanced artificial intelligence, including beneficial, neutral, and catastrophic outcomes. These are used for strategic planning, risk assessment, and alignment research. For the full AI safety orientation hub, see AI Safety and Alignment.
Why It Matters
Thinking in scenarios is our only defense against the ‘radical uncertainty’ of advanced AI; by mapping out possible takeover, alignment, and coordination outcomes today, we can identify the robust strategies and ‘warning signs’ needed to steer toward a beneficial future.
Core Concepts
- Takeover Scenarios: AI gaining control or optimizing in ways harmful to humanity.
- Alignment Success/Failure: Worlds where AI is successfully aligned vs misaligned.
- Multipole Traps and Coordination Problems: Multiple AIs or actors leading to bad equilibria.
- Singleton vs Distributed AI: Single dominant AI vs many competing systems.