Definition
A Conjecture is a creative guess or proposed explanation for a phenomenon. In Popperian epistemology, conjectures are the starting point of all knowledge growth; they are not derived from data but are invented through the creative capacity of the human mind.
- How to read: “Conjecture.”
- Meaning: A hypothesis or theory that has not yet been refuted.
Why It Matters
Conjecture acknowledges that knowledge begins with creativity, not passive observation. By framing theories as conjectures, we remain open to the possibility that they are wrong, which is the foundational mindset of Fallibilism.
Core Concepts
- Non-Inductive Origin: Conjectures are not built up from observations (as in induction). They are bold, creative leaps that attempt to solve a problem or explain an anomaly.
- Problem-Driven: A conjecture is typically proposed to resolve a conflict between existing theories or an observation that contradicts expectation.
- Boldness: The more specific and bold a conjecture is, the more useful it is, because it is easier to criticize and test.